关注社会:中国内陆将吸引更多外资

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关注社会:中国内陆将吸引更多外资

With wages in China rising at about 12 per cent annually after adjusting for inflation over the past few years, it's easy to think that lower-cost countries such as Bangladesh, Vietnam and Indonesia will benefit.

近几年来,中国经通胀调整后的工资水平每年以12%左右的速度增长,有鉴于此,人们很容易就会认为,孟加拉国、越南和印尼等成本更低的国家将从中受益。

But the conventional wisdom that China will attract less foreign direct investment (FDI) as manufacturing moves away is wrong, according to a new report from the Economist Intelligence Unit.

一般认为,随着制造业外流,中国吸引的外来直接投资(FDI)将会减少。但根据经济学人智库(Economist Intelligence Unit)新近发表的一份报告,这种常见观点是错误的。

The main beneficiaries from rising labour costs on China's coasts are instead China's inland provinces, which will attract huge amounts of FDI in coming years.

中国沿海地区劳动力成本持续上涨的主要受益者将是中国的内陆省份,这些地区在未来几年内将吸引大量FDI。

While EIU research showed that the textile sector in China was shrinking at an annual rate of 6 per cent a year, China remains the hub for manufacturing of computer products and value-added goods, not to mention retail and services in general.

EIU的研究显示,虽然中国纺织业正以每年6%的速度萎缩,但就电脑产品和有附加值的产品而言,中国仍然是制造业中心,而总体的零售业和服务业就更不用说了。

By 2015, EIU predicts that Liaoning in the northeast will be attracting as much as $50bn in inbound FDI, while Sichuan will attract about $18bn. To put this in perspective, the whole of India pulled in $78bn in the first ten months of 2010.

EIU预计,到2015年,辽宁省将吸引多达500亿美元的FDI,而四川省将吸引180亿美元左右。为使读者对这些数字有个概念,在此拿印度作比:2010年前10个月,印度全国吸引的FDI为780亿美元。

China's most industrialised province of Guangdong, a magnet for FDI since the 1980s, will not do too shabbily either, pulling in as much as $33bn in 2015.

作为中国工业化程度最高的省份,广东从上世纪80年代以来一直在吸引大量FDI。今后该省的表现也不会太差,预计2015年可吸引330亿美元FDI。

The shift inland is already apparent in Chongqing in western China where party boss Bo Xilai has successfully made the investment climate attractive for the likes of Hewlett-Packard and others. The EIU points out that in 2007, Chongqing was ranked 22nd on a list of 31 provinces ranked by inbound FDI. Last year, it attracted as much as $11bn.

FDI流向内陆地区的趋势,在地处西部地区的重庆已表现得相当明显。重庆市委书记薄熙来成功地改善了当地的投资环境,吸引了惠普(Hewlett-Packard)等众多知名外企。EIU指出,在2007年,重庆吸引的FDI在31个省份中仅排在第22位。去年,这个数字已高达110亿美元。

The other big trend identified by the EIU is that services is attracting more investment than ever. FDI in both wholesale and retail has grown by nearly 40 per cent a year over the past five years.

EIU还指出了另一个大趋势:中国服务业吸引的外来投资正在不断增加。在最近5年内,服务业批发和零售两个领域的FDI都以每年近40%的速度增长。

In places like Xiamen in Fujian province, one of the earliest beneficiaries of FDI from Taiwan dating back to the 1980s, services FDI in sectors like IT and scientific research and technical services has been booming. About three-fifths of the FDI in Xiamen is in services.

在诸如福建省厦门市这样的地方,IT、科研、技术服务等服务业领域的FDI迅猛增长。上世纪80年代,厦门成为来自台湾的FDI的最早一批受益者,目前该市吸引的FDI约五分之三都流向了服务业。

What this barrage of numbers suggests is that China's place at the very top of the league tables of inbound FDI among developing countries is not about to be vacated in the foreseeable future.

这一大堆数字说明,在可预见的将来,中国不会让出发展中国家中在吸引FDI方面的头把交椅。

One reason is that productivity has been growing about as fast as wages in China, softening the impact of a rising wage bill for manufacturers and those in the service sector.

一个原因是,中国生产力的增长与工资水平的增长基本相当,减轻了工资持续上涨对制造业和服务业企业的影响。

The education levels for its workers are also far superior to that in India and Indonesia. Last month, an annual survey by Pratham, an educational charity in India, found that the majority of fifth grade students among those surveyed could not read texts for second grade students. Maths levels were also sub-par – altogether the survey painted a dismal picture of a country local business papers like to refer to as a "knowledge hub" for the world.

中国工人的教育水平也远胜于印度和印尼的工人。上月,印度教育慈善机构Pratham在一项年度调查中发现,在接受调查的印度五年级学生中,大部分学生不会读二年级的课本,数学水平也很差。总而言之,对于这个本土财经媒体喜欢自称为世界“知识中心”的国家,这项调查向我们呈现了一幅黯淡的画面。

译者:何黎